Desired neighborhoods often at risk of sea-level rise

By Bill Kearney South Florida Sun Sentinel

Some of South Florida’s most coveted neighborhoods also are some of the most vulnerable to sea-level rise, according to nonprofit ClimateCentral.org. And now you can find exactly where they are.

The nonprofit, a group of scientists and communicators that uses science, data and technology to create visuals depicting how climate affects people’s lives, recently released a new interactive map called the “Coastal Risk Finder.” It lets you zoom into your neighborhood or home and adjust the map to reveal what water levels will be like in 20 years, 30 years, 40 years, and so on.

It also lets you adjust for different greenhouse pollution scenarios, such as “Unchecked pollution,” “Current commitments” and “Sweeping cuts now,” to see the resulting climate change and ensuing sea level rise.

Additionally, you can dial in what the water inundation would be in your neighborhood for a 10-year or 100-year flood.

The map uses an “intermediate” prediction of sea level rise for different decades. Under these conditions, with current commitments, there would be about a foot of sea-level rise by 2050 in South Florida.

The analysis used to create the interactive map comes from 234 climate experts from 64 countries, as well as a 2022 U.S. climate report that synthesized data and expertise from eight governmental agencies.

It’s no surprise that properties along the Intracoastal Waterway and the creeks and canals that feed it are the most at risk, but certain areas show broader swaths of inundation.

Here’s a look at what ClimateCentral.org’s map shows happening in South Florida in 2050 if the world were to continue to follow current pollution commitment scenarios.

Palm Beach County

In Palm Beach County, the most vulnerable spots by the year 2050 would include communities just south of Jupiter inlet, including the Jupiter Ridge Natural Area, and communities east and south of the Jonathan’s Landing Golf Club.

John D. MacArthur Beach State Park adjacent to North Palm Beach would lose a significant amount of land, and vast amounts of docks and piers along the Intracoastal Waterway between West Palm Beach and Deerfield Beech could be underwater.

Broward County

In Broward County, the most vulnerable spots by the year 2050 would include any waterfront property on the Intracoastal Waterway, many of which could lose docks, and have water cresting seawalls on a daily basis.

The sea would penetrate farther inland in areas such as Cypress Isle Estates in Pompano Beach and west from there along the Cypress Creek, until it nears I-95 south of Pompano Beach.

Wilton Manors waterfront properties could face similar circumstances. In that area, the sea-level rise would reach west of I-95 into Royal Palm Island in Lauderdale Lakes. Swaths of nearby John D. Easterlin Park and Mills Pond Park, both west of Wilton Manors, would be submerged.

Sea-level rise would reach far inland, west of Florida’s Turnpike, along the South Fork of the New River and along the New River Canal close to Davie.

Much of the land northwest of Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, where I-95 and 595 intersect, could be underwater. This includes Secret Woods Nature Center and some of the marinas along the South Fork of the New River.

Adjacent neighborhoods in that area, as well as those west of the Turnpike and south of Plantation, could have sea water lapping into backyards on normal high tides. King tide will add to the volume.

Farther south, West Lake Park both north and south of Dania Beach Boulevard would be underwater, as would docks in Hollywood.

Miami-Dade County and the Everglades

The waterfront neighborhoods of Miami-Dade County would experience much the same inundation as the other counties.

Keystone Island, the Bal Harbour area and North Bay Village all are vulnerable.

The tennis center on Key Biscayne will be waterfront, and across Biscayne Bay, parts of Vizcaya Museum and Gardens, Matheson Hammock Park and the Deering Estate would all succumb to the sea.

The most profound invasion would occur in Everglades National Park, which stands to lose close to half of its landmass. The Tamiami Trail’s western third would be submerged as well.

Climate Central’s intermediate projected sea-level rise for Broward and Palm Beach counties in the year 2100 is around 3 feet, and slightly higher, at 3.7 feet for Miami-Dade County.

The most aggressive prediction from U.S. climate and science agencies calls for more than 6 feet of sea-level rise in South Florida by 2100, though it does not specify where that might occur.

Inundation will be more severe under “unchecked pollution” scenarios, or if you add in flooding, such as a 10-year or 100-year flood. A 100-year flood does not mean one that would occur every 100 years, but rather, a flood that has a 1% chance of happening in any given year.

ClimateCentral.org’s interactive map does not calculate storm surge.

Though some climate change occurs naturally over millions of years, the current rate of change is a problem.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website said that “human activity is putting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere faster than natural processes take it out. Rising carbon dioxide levels are strengthening Earth’s greenhouse effect and causing global warming.”

The NOAA tide gauge at Virginia Key shows that the region has gained 8 inches of sea level since 1994.

The wet western suburbs

Living in the western suburbs of South Florida does not mean freedom from sea-level rise. As oceans enlarge, they overcome can South Florida’s canal system, which relies on gravity to drain water to the ocean. When sea levels reach the same height as the canals, as they did during a storm that coincided with king tides in November 2023, that’s impossible. The western areas flood.

The South Florida Water Management District is working with the Army Corps of Engineer and county officials on an expensive plan to put in 20 new pumps and raise spillway gates. That would help prevent flooding in western areas, but would not keep sea-level rise out of coastal areas.

There are several other initiatives across South Florida to address sea-level rise. Broward and Miami-Dade counties have programs to convert septic systems, which fail and leach into waterways as seas rise, onto municipal sewer systems. It’s a slow a costly process. Coastal building codes also incorporate flooding into their plans.

Sea-level rise does not happen uniformly across the globe. The U.S. Interagency 2022 Report predicts that by 2050, the east coast and Gulf coast will have much higher sea-level rise than the west coast or Alaska. Their findings are listed below:

East coast: 10-14 inches.

West coast: 4-8 inches.

Gulf coast: 14-18 inches.

Caribbean: 8-10 inches.

Hawaiian Islands: 6-8 inches.

Northern Alaska: 8-10 inches.

South Florida Sun Sentinel staff writer Bill Kearney covers the environment, the outdoors and tropical weather. He can be reached at bkearney@sunsentinel.com. Follow him on Instagram @billkearney or on X @billkearney6.